Home MANAGEMENT Inflation Cools in January

Inflation Cools in January

The Federal Reserve now has more flexibility as inflation slows, potentially delaying interest rate cuts. A key price gauge tracked by the Federal Reserve ticked down in January, giving the the central bank room to keep interest rates on hold as consumers curb their spending.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ANNOUNCED:

Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025

Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $194.3 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $30.7 billion (0.2 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $52.7 billion in January. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in January and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent.

The increase in current-dollar personal income in January primarily reflected increases in personal current transfer receipts, compensation, and personal income receipts on assets.

The $30.7 billion decrease in current-dollar PCE in January reflected a decrease of $76.7 billion in spending for goods and an increase of $46.0 billion in spending for services.

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for January increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index January increased 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.6 percent from one year ago.

Technical Notes

Changes in Personal Income and Outlays for January

The increase in personal income in January primarily reflected increases in personal current transfer receipts, compensation, and personal income receipts on assets.

  • The increase in personal current transfer receipts was led by social security benefits, reflecting a January cost-of-living adjustment based on data from the Social Security Administration.
  • The increase in compensation was led by private wages and salaries, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES). Wages and salaries in services-producing industries increased $38.0 billion. Wages and salaries in goods producing industries increased $1.9 billion.
  • Within personal income receipts on assets, the increase was led by personal dividend income, based on data from publicly traded companies.

Within personal outlays, personal current transfer payments to rest-of-world (net) decreased $26.4 billion, reflecting a settlement from a foreign pharmaceutical company that was paid to U.S. households.

Revisions to Personal Income

Estimates have been updated for July through December. The estimates for July through September for compensation, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance reflect the incorporation of third-quarter wage and salary data from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. The estimates for October through December reflect updated BLS CES data.

SOURCE – BEA

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